WEEKLY MARKET SUMMARY
Global Equities: Geopolitical risks and rising energy prices weighed on global equity prices, resulting in the worst weekly performance since October 2025 in major domestic indices. The S&P 500 ended the session down -2.0%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped –2.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite finished -1.2% lower. US small cap stocks fell -4.0% during the week. Foreign stocks fared even worse, with developed market stocks down -6.7% and emerging markets pulling back -8.4%.
Fixed Income: The 10-Year Treasury Yield’s brief foray below the 4% level reversed abruptly as yields spiked to near 4.15%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage had fallen below 6% the week prior but shot up to 6.5% in response to the move in the 10-year rate. Private credit markets faced a surge in redemptions during the week, highlighted by a nearly-8% withdrawal request from Blackstone’s flagship BCRED fund.
Commodities: US West Texas Intermediate Crude prices skyrocketed during the week to end at $81 a barrel and then took another leg up over the weekend to over $112/barrel as the conflict in Iran has kept the strait of Hormuz closed to tankers. Roughly one-fifth of the global oil supply flows through the strait, and while President Trump has offered insurance and naval escorts for shippers, no oil companies have been willing to take on the risk. Gold prices did not benefit from the risk-off shift in markets, slipping over -1% during the week to end at $5,085/oz.
WEEKLY ECONOMIC SUMMARY
Jobs Report Miss: The February Jobs report fell dramatically below expectations, revealing a loss of 92,000 jobs during the month when economists were expecting a gain of 60,000. While there were some anomalies impacting the data such as winter weather and a nursing strike that temporarily removed 30,000 jobs from the data, the report was not an encouraging sign for the economy. The poor jobs data cut a full percentage point off the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which fell from 3.1% to 2.1%. With inflation also trending higher, the Fed is facing a stagflation predicament of rising prices and slowing economic growth.
Manufacturing Momentum Slips: The revitalization of domestic manufacturing has been a key pillar of President Trump’s agenda, and the manufacturing sector remained in expansionary territory for the second consecutive month, albeit at a slower pace. The ISM Manufacturing PMI report reading of 52.4 was a slight downgrade from 52.6, with any reading above 50 indicating expanding activity. A separate report from S&P confirmed the slowdown, at 51.6 compared to 52.4 in January. US manufacturers are still struggling with the impact of tariffs, which increase input prices and will now have to account for a surge in energy prices, so a pullback into contraction could be in store when the March data is released.
Earnings Update: A slew of retail names reported with earnings season just about wrapped up, highlighted by Target (TGT) and Costco (COST) which both beat estimates. Broadcom (AVGO) also reported during the week, impressing with AI revenue that doubled, driving an earnings beat and guidance raise. Despite concerns over the AI trade, technology companies delivered strong quarterly earnings and were the primary driver of an upward revision to expected Q1 2026 EPS growth from 11.2% to 11.5%, according to data from Factset.
CHART OF THE DAY
The Chart of the Day shows the dramatic spike in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil as of March 8, 2026. Both WTI and Brent oil prices are surging in response to the escalating war in Iran which has closed vital shipping lanes. Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities are also putting upward pressure on prices, as dramatic footage circulates of huge columns of flames and massive clouds of smoke in Tehran. Oil prices could quickly accelerate higher, with some analysts projecting $150/barrel within weeks, or even days.
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange. Commentary by VestGen Investment Management.